Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
