🔗 Share this article

It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a symptom or a cause of Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger might become the player he showed during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.

This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.