The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a critical journey to Washington to confer with US President Donald Trump. This marks the initial face-to-face meeting for the two figures following an extended period of escalating tensions and heated rhetoric.
Agenda for Talks
The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, regional stability, and US strikes on alleged narco-boats are expected to be high on the list of topics when they meet at the US presidential residence on Tuesday.
Background of Strained Relations
While the two men were cordial in a phone call following a January US military operation, Petro has since said he believes there is a "serious risk" of armed intervention against Colombia. Trump, for his part, has previously commented that a such action in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
The upcoming meeting comes after an extended period of the two presidents exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly criticised repeated US attacks on alleged narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's border policies.
"His stance shifted," the US President was quoted as saying ahead of the White House meeting.
Areas of Disagreement
On the US side, Trump has accused Petro's government of not taking sufficient action to stop the trafficking of narcotics toward the United States, and has vowed to expand strikes to land targets across the region.
However, the acrimony seemed to subside after a "polite" phone call involving the two leaders, which a Colombian official later characterized as an 180-degree turn "by both parties".
Mediating Role
According to diplomatic sources, one man – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in setting up the conversation. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our relations were going in the wrong way," the senator reportedly. "My hope is for our relations to get better."
Border Security and the Guerrilla Group
Prior to Tuesday's meeting, Colombian stated that much of the discussion would center on shared US and Colombian concerns over stability in Venezuela, with which Colombia has an extensive frontier.
A significant portion of that frontier is under the sway of the National Liberation Army. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, racketeering, contraband, and illegal mining in border states and reportedly collaborates with compromised officials within the Caracas administration.
From the US perspective, tackling the threat of the ELN will be crucial to guaranteeing safety for US companies engaged in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts point out that the ELN has the capacity to spoil economic ambitions by attacking international businesses and staff, as it has in the past attempted in Colombia.
Counter-Narcotics Collaboration
An equally pressing issue for the two presidents will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest source of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro instituted a halt on information exchange with US security agencies after comments from Washington.
The US has, in turn, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed restrictions on Colombian officials, including the president and his relatives.
"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a analyst. "Any move to sever Colombian cooperation could also weaken all investigations."
Potential Outcomes
Despite multiple areas for cooperation, the possibility for a clash exists. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," commented a former diplomat. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's anger... But one never knows."
For the Colombian leader, even a difficult meeting could be beneficial. His time in office concludes in the coming months, and the outcome of the talks could influence the electoral chances of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a win-win position," noted a regional expert. "A positive outcome takes the air out of criticism... If it doesn't, he's protecting national sovereignty. He could turn that in his favour."
