Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
